Bankruptcy Prediction of Software Companies Using Altman Z-Score
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56209/jommerce.v5i1.118Keywords:
Altman Z - Score, Software Companies, Bankruptcy, Financial Distress, Cluster AnalysisAbstract
This study employs a modified Altman Z-Score model to 15 selected companies with the aim to predict bankruptcy risk in the Indian software industry. Working capital to total assets, retained earnings to total assets, earnings before interest and taxes to total assets, and market value equity to book value of total liabilities, aside to the variable sales to total assets ratio, are the four main financial ratios used in the model, which is being altered for non-manufacturing businesses. The analysis is supported using secondary data from 2004 to 2022 that has been collected from financial statements and reliable financial websites. The study classifies businesses according to their financial stability via bibliometric analysis, descriptive quantitative approaches, and cluster analysis. Variations in 3i Infotech consistently displayed signs of financial distress, while companies include Mphasis, Tech Mahindra, and NIIT occasionally fell into a grey area, suggesting intermittent financial uncertainty, the majority of companies stayed in the non-distress group from 2004 to 2021, indicating a low bankruptcy risk. The study suggests the implementation of specific corrective measures, such as comprehensive financial restructuring and better risk-management methods, for businesses that have been identified to be in the distress and grey zones. In addition, to reduce the risk of bankruptcy and ensure long-term financial stability, proactive processes for governance and ongoing monitoring are encouraged.
References
Adnan Aziz, M., & Dar, H. A. (2006). Predicting corporate bankruptcy: Where we stand? Corporate Governance: The International Journal of Business in Society, 6(1), 18–33. https://doi.org/10.1108/14720700610649436
Afrin, R. (2017). Analyzing the potential of Altman’s Z-score for prediction of market performance and share returns: A case study of the cement industry in Bangladesh. The AUST Journal of Science and Technology, 6(1–2), 1–16.
Agrawal, K., & Chatterjee, C. (2015). Earnings management and financial distress: Evidence from India. Global Business Review, 16(5), 140–154. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150915597591
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325933
Altman, E. I. (2018). Applications of distress prediction models: What have we learned after 50 years from the Z-score models? International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(70), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030070
Altman, E. I., Danovi, A., & Falini, A. (2013). Z-Score models' application to Italian companies subject to extraordinary administration. Journal of Applied Finance, 23(1), 128–137.
Altman, E. I., Iwanicz-Drozdowska, M., Laitinen, E. K., & Suvas, A. (2014). Distressed firm and bankruptcy prediction in an international context: A review and empirical analysis of Altman's Z-score model. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2536340
Altman, E. I., Iwanicz‐Drozdowska, M., Laitinen, E. K., & Suvas, A. (2016). Financial distress prediction in an international context: A review and empirical analysis of Altman's Z‐score model. Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 28(2), 131–171. https://doi.org/10.1111/jifm.12053
Anuj, C. S., Narayanan, A., & Nandan, R. (2018). The relevance of Altman Z-score analysis. International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews, 5(4), 233–240.
Apoorva, D. V., Curpod, S. P., & Namratha, M. (2019). Application of Altman Z-score model on selected Indian companies to predict bankruptcy. International Journal of Business and Management Invention, 8(1), 77–82.
Bal, G. R. (2015). Prediction of financial distress using Altman Z–Score: A study of select FMCG companies. Indian Journal of Applied Research, 5(9), 129–131.
Charitou, A., Neophytou, E., & Charalambous, C. (2004). Predicting corporate failure: Empirical evidence for the UK. European Accounting Review, 13(3), 465–497. https://doi.org/10.1080/0963818042000216811
Chouhan, V., Chandra, B., & Goswami, S. (2014). Predicting financial stability of select BSE companies revisiting Altman Z-score. International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences, 15(2), 92–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ILSHS.26.92
Cındık, Z., & Armutlulu, I. H. (2021). A revision of Altman Z-Score model and a comparative analysis of Turkish companies’ financial distress prediction. National Accounting Review, 3(2), 237–255. https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2021013
Cornelissen, J. P., & Werner, M. D. (2014). Putting communication front and center in institutional theory and analysis. Academy of Management Review, 39(3), 317–331. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2012.0315
Eisenhardt, K. M., & Martin, J. A. (2000). Dynamic capabilities: What are they? Strategic Management Journal, 21(10–11), 1105–1121. https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0266(200010/11)21:10/11<1105::AID-SMJ133>3.0.CO;2-E
Elia, J., Toros, E., Sawaya, C., & Balouza, M. (2021). Using Altman Z”-score to predict financial distress: Evidence from Lebanese alpha banks. Management Studies and Economic Systems, 6(1–2), 47–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.12816/0059150
Finishtya, F. C. (2019). The role of cash flow of operational, profitability, and financial leverage in predicting financial distress on manufacturing company in Indonesia. Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, 17(1), 110–117. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jam.2019.017.01.12
Friesenhahn, S. M., & Kwan, S. H. (2020). Risk of business insolvency during coronavirus crisis. FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (30), 1–5.
Ghosh, P. (2013). Testing of Altman’s Z-Score model: A case study of Dunlop India Ltd.
Halteh, K., Kumar, K., & Gepp, A. (2018). Financial distress prediction of Islamic banks using tree-based stochastic techniques. Managerial Finance, 44(6), 759–773. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-05-2017-0173
Hayes, S. K., Hodge, K. A., & Hughes, L. W. (2010). A study of the efficacy of Altman’s Z to predict bankruptcy of specialty retail firms doing business in contemporary times. Economics & Business Journal: Inquiries & Perspectives, 3(1), 130–134.
Ikpesu, F. (2019). Firm specific determinants of financial distress: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Accounting and Taxation, 11(3), 49–56. https://doi.org/10.5897/JAT2019.0342
Isayas, Y. N. (2021). Financial distress and its determinants: Evidence from insurance companies in Ethiopia. Cogent Business & Management, 8(1), 1951110. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2021.1951110
Jensen, M. C. (1993). The modern industrial revolution, exit, and the failure of internal control systems. The Journal of Finance, 48(3), 831–880. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04022.x
Joshi, P. D. (2019). A study on application of Altman’s Z-score model in predicting the bankruptcy of Reliance Communication. International Journal of 360 Management Review, 7(2), 35–47.
Kamaluddin, A., Ishak, N., & Mohammed, N. F. (2019). Financial distress prediction through cash flow ratios analysis. International Journal of Financial Research, 10(3), 63–76. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v10n3p63
Lace, N., & Sundukova, Z. (2010). Company’s standards for financial soundness indicators. In The 6th International Scientific Conference “Business and Management 2010” (pp. 112–117). Vilnius.
Manaseer, S., & Al-Oshaibat, S. D. (2018). Validity of Altman Z-score model to predict financial failure: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(8), 181–189. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n8p181
Mittal, R., & Singh, N. P. (2023). Liquidity, solvency and profitability of TCS: An empirical analysis. IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, 20(3).
Mohammed, S. (2016). Bankruptcy prediction by using the Altman Z-score model in Oman: A case study of Raysut Cement Company SAOG and its subsidiaries. Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal, 10(4), 70–80. https://doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v10i4.6
Muñoz‐Izquierdo, N., Laitinen, E. K., Camacho‐Miñano, M. D. M., & Pascual‐Ezama, D. (2020). Does audit report information improve financial distress prediction over Altman's traditional Z‐score model? Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 31(1), 65–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/jifm.12108
Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(2), 147–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90015-0
Ningsih, S., & Permatasari, F. F. (2018). Analysis method of Altman Z-score modifications to predict financial distress on the company go public sub sector of the automotive and components. International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research (IJEBAR), 2(3), 36–44. https://doi.org/10.29040/ijebar.v2i03.339
Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109–131. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
Otlet, P. (1934). Treatise on documentation: The book on the book. Brussels, Belgium.
Panigrahi, C. (2019). Validity of Altman’s “Z” score model in predicting financial distress of pharmaceutical companies. Economics and Public Policy, 4(1), 65–73.
Pinto, M., Pulgarín, A., & Escalona, M. I. (2014). Viewing information literacy concepts: A comparison of two branches of knowledge. Scientometrics, 98(3), 2311–2329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-013-1154-4
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 1–41. https://doi.org/10.2307/2672906
Platt, H., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting financial distress. Journal of Financial Service Professionals, 56(3), 12–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02755985
Primasari, N. S. (2017). Analisis Altman Z-score, Grover score, Springate, dan Zmijewski sebagai signaling financial distress (Studi empiris industri barang-barang konsumsi di Indonesia). Accounting and Management Journal, 1(1), 23–43. https://doi.org/10.33086/amj.v1i1.70
Ramamonjiarivelo, Z., Weech-Maldonado, R., Hearld, L., Menachemi, N., Epané, J. P., & O’Connor, S. (2015). Public hospitals in financial distress. Health Care Management Review, 40(4), 337–347. https://doi.org/10.1097/HMR.0000000000000051
Rodoni, A., & Ali, H. (2010). Manajer keuangan (Edisi pertama). Jakarta: Mitra Wacana Media.
Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R. W., & Jaffe, J. (1996). Corporate finance (6th ed.). New York: McGraw Hill Irwin.
Rumelt, R. P. (1974). Strategy, structure, and economic performance. Harvard Business Review, 52(1), 93–101.
Sanesh, C. (2016). The analytical study of Altman Z score on NIFTY 50 companies. IRA-International Journal of Management & Social Science, 3(3), 15–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.21013/jmss.v3.n3.p6
Shahwan, T. M. (2015). The effects of corporate governance on financial performance and financial distress: Evidence from Egypt. Corporate Governance, 15(5), 641–662. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/CG-11-2014-0140
Sina, M. A., Huda, M. N., Hossain, H., & Sabur, M. A. (2020). Identification of sickness of some selected garment factories in Bangladesh and its remedial measures: An application of Altman’s Z-score model. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 10(12), 1823–1838. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2020.1012113
Sjahrial, D. (2012). Pengantar manajemen keuangan (4th ed.). Mitra Wacana Media.
Succurro, M., Arcuri, G., & Costanzo, G. D. (2019). A combined approach based on robust PCA to improve bankruptcy forecasting. Review of Accounting and Finance, 18(2), 296–320. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/RAF-04-2018-0077
Sumathi, A., & Narasimhaiah, T. (2016). A study on the effect of working capital on the profitability of Infosys. ICTACT Journal on Management Studies, 2(3), 368–371. https://doi.org/10.21917/ijms.2016.0047
Swalih, M., Adarsh, K., & Sulphey, M. (2021). A study on the financial soundness of Indian automobile industries using Altman Z-score. Accounting, 7(2), 295–298. http://dx.doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2020.12.001
Tarighi, H., Appolloni, A., Shirzad, A., & Azad, A. (2022). Corporate social responsibility disclosure (CSRD) and financial distressed risk (FDR): Does institutional ownership matter? Sustainability, 14(2), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020742
Tung, D. T., & Phung, V. T. H. (2019). An application of Altman Z-score model to analyze the bankruptcy risk: Cases of multidisciplinary enterprises in Vietnam. Investment Management & Financial Innovations, 16(4), 181–191. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(4).2019.16
Udin, S., Khan, M. A., & Javid, A. Y. (2017). The effects of ownership structure on likelihood of financial distress: An empirical evidence. Corporate Governance: The International Journal of Business in Society, 17(4), 589–612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/CG-03-2016-0067
Yi, W. (2012). Z-score model on financial crisis early-warning of listed real estate companies in China: A financial engineering perspective. Systems Engineering Procedia, 3, 153–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.021
Younas, N., Uddin, S., Awan, T., & Khan, M. Y. (2021). Corporate governance and financial distress: Asian emerging market perspective. Corporate Governance: The International Journal of Business in Society, 21(4), 702–715. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/CG-04-2020-0119
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Social Commerce

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.